Every prediction lands in a public ledger.

This is the methodology track record. Every cascade prediction Chainge ships carries a locked horizon, capped at 90 days. When the horizon arrives, the prediction is scored against primary-source data: right, partial, wrong, or unclear. The original text is never edited. The ledger reads as a record, not a story.

Two states travel together on every row. The prediction window has its own lifecycle (pending, then closed at the horizon), and the underlying situation has its own (active while the event runs, resolved when it ends). A closed window does not mean a resolved situation. Hormuz is the live case: the first prediction window closed on June 1, the strait situation runs on.

prediction window: pending / closed  ·  situation: active / resolved  ·  first node-level checks resolved against dated ACM documents, 2026-06-11

Six active clusters. Twenty-two chains.

The matrix today holds six active prediction clusters. Each cluster groups a set of chains sharing a common source event or thesis. Each chain ships with named transmission, an attenuating probability, source citations, and a locked verdict horizon. Hover the source-disputed marker for the source-side note; open the related-horizons rows to see sibling Polymarket windows on the same situation.

Every row now carries its evidence-path pill (automatic, partial, observed, or pending), so a reader sees not just the verdict but how it will resolve. Where a later week sharpened an earlier read, the rows sit under a shared chain timeline with a refines marker. Where one chain bridges two clusters, it is referenced from its primary cluster rather than double-counted. The ledger updates weekly.

On 2026-06-11 the EU-electricity cluster scored its first checks mechanically. Two node-level checks resolved against dated ACM documents by lookup, and one is supported pending document curation. The parent horizons stay pending, because their terminals await operator data. This is the page working as designed: a node resolves the moment a primary source can settle it, and the terminal waits for the evidence it needs.

The receipts here, the method there.

A pending window means the horizon has not arrived. A closed window carries one of four verdicts.

For how cascades get generated, how the harness grounds claims, and how verdicts get scored, see how it works. The track-record page is the receipts; how-it-works is the method.

Want first access as horizons land?

The verdict ledger is live and updates every weekly run. Want word as horizons close and terminals resolve? Drop Niels a line.

→ email Niels