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in research preview · 2026

From the headline to your bottom line, in six steps or fewer.

Cross-domain cascade analysis, with every claim cited. Elite foresight for teams without a retained advisor.

the qualitative quant. We surface the chains consultancies sell, at a fraction of the cost. Robin Hood, for strategic foresight.
from energy markets to grocery store buyouts 5 steps · 61% confident · 12-month horizon

Tension with Iran today could reshape food brand ownership by late 2026.

iran-israel sanctions oil price chemicals food brands step 01 step 02 step 03 step 04
grid strikes eu energy pkg gas costs fertilizer supermarket step 01 step 02 step 03 step 04
ai capex water cost local prices crew wages budget airlines step 01 step 02 step 03 step 04
verdict: promote sources cited: ECB, EUR-Lex, Brent · model · week 19

Example chains. Illustrative of the platform's reasoning, not surfaced predictions. The first live Chainge chains ship in summer 2026.

01 · the thesis

Six steps. Or fewer.

In 1973, the sociologist Mark Granovetter argued that the most valuable information moves through weak ties between clusters, not the dense ties inside them. Fifty years later, it still holds. What's new: an AI system can now trace those ties at scale, on demand, without a research department.

Any global event reaches your local exposure in six steps or fewer. We find those steps.

Cross-domain impact analysis is what elite consultancies sell for six- and seven-figure retainers. Maps of how a regulatory shift in Brussels lands in industrial input costs in Eindhoven, then in consumer brand M&A in New York. Chains of cause and effect, built from public information, then sold back to clients who could build them in-house if they had the time, the team, and the patience.

The information is largely public. The deals are not. We surface the chains, with every claim cited, at a fraction of the cost. Robin Hood, for strategic foresight.

"The strength of weak ties," Granovetter, AJS, 1973

cluster · eu regulation cluster · public markets cluster · supply chain weak tie
02 · how it works

Profile. Diagnostic. Cascades.

Chainge turns your structured exposure profile into a weekly cross-domain cascade briefing. The profile runs in your own AI tool, a diagnostic challenges it, and from then on the global signal corpus runs against your specific shape every week. Behind the briefing: a four-stage AI pipeline wired to primary sources (EUR-Lex, FRED, GDELT, Polymarket). Every claim cited. Every chain scored.

03 · who uses it

For the people without an advisory team.

McKinsey serves the Fortune 500. We serve everyone else. Operators building strategy on the back of a napkin. Mid-market teams who can't justify a six-figure retainer. Analysts who want a methodology layer they can actually show their clients.

chain 01 · iran energy

Anne

COO · specialty chemicals · Eindhoven

three quarters of margin protected

on her desk

"Q4 input contracts get repriced next quarter. I don't have a CFO who reads central bank releases at breakfast. What should I be watching that I'm not?"

how the chain reaches her

iftensions with Iran escalate, sanctions enforcement tightens, Brent lifts $15-25 per barrel, European specialty chemicals get squeezed, and Anne's Q4 contracts reprice at +18%.

01 · event

Tensions with Iran escalate

Geopolitical risk ripples into commodity markets within days.

02 · regulation

Sanctions enforcement tightens

EU and US scrutiny on Iranian energy chains rises.

03 · commodity

Brent crude +$15-25/bbl

Oil holds above structural fair value into Q3.

04 · industry

Specialty chemicals squeezed

Petrochemical input costs propagate downstream into Anne's solvent contracts.

05 · her exposure

Q4 input costs +18%

Two quarters of margin pressure, surfaced before the board sees it.

chain 02 · ukraine attrition

Pieter

head of strategy · european retail group · Brussels

supplier renegotiation moved forward by 8 weeks

on his desk

"Twelve hundred stores across DACH and Benelux. What's coming in 2027 that I'm not pricing yet?"

how the chain reaches him

ifRussia escalates strikes on Ukraine's grid, the EU rushes an emergency gas package, TTF gas runs 40% above seasonal, fertilizer producer margins compress, and Pieter's 2027 grocery basket gets revised.

01 · event

Russia escalates grid strikes

Ukrainian power capacity drops sharply into winter.

02 · policy

EU energy security package

Emergency gas storage refill mandated across member states.

03 · commodity

TTF gas +40% over seasonal

European wholesale gas trades well above the five-year average.

04 · industry

Fertilizer margins compress

Eastern European producers pass higher input costs into 2026 contracts.

05 · his exposure

2027 grocery basket revised

Pieter brings supplier negotiations forward, protects retail margin.

chain 03 · ai infrastructure

Niamh

cross-asset analyst · mid-tier asset manager · Dublin

a thesis worth a quarter's research budget

on her desk

"Wall Street is pricing Irish budget airlines on fuel and capacity through 2027. Are there developments that could affect them that the market isn't pricing in?"

how the chain reaches her thesis

what Niamh sees that the market doesn'tData centers in Dublin and Frankfurt are about to drive up cabin crew wages, compressing European budget airline margins into 2027. Wall Street is modeling fuel and capacity. This sits in their blind spot.

ifhyperscalers keep expanding EU data centers in cities like Dublin and Frankfurt, those same cities run short on water and grid capacity, utilities raise tariffs, local inflation outpaces the country, cabin crew based in those cities demand higher wages, and budget airline margins compress while legacy carriers absorb.

01 · event

Data center build in Dublin + Frankfurt

Microsoft, Google, AWS confirm 2026-28 builds. Each facility consumes the water and electricity of a small town. The buildout is concentrated in cities that also host major European airline hubs.

02 · utility

Water and grid tariffs rise

Cooling and power demand outpace local capacity. Utilities raise tariffs to fund expansion. Costs propagate into every water- and power-intensive business in those cities.

03 · inflation

Local inflation runs hotter

Higher utility costs flow through food, hospitality, manufacturing. Regional inflation measurably outpaces the national average. Workers feel it in their grocery bills first.

04 · labor

Cabin crew demand higher wages

Crew based in those exact cities push for above-trend 2026 raises to keep up with their cost of living. Wage negotiations are sticky; once they reset higher, they stay higher.

05 · her exposure

Budget airline margins short

Ryanair and Wizz run on the thinnest margins in European aviation. A 5-8% wage step-up compresses them meaningfully more than it compresses Lufthansa or IAG, who can pass costs through ticket prices.

04 · track record

First public verdicts: W27 of 2026.

Every prediction in a chain runs to a verdict horizon, capped at 90 days. When the horizon arrives, we mark it: right, partial, wrong, or unclear. Mechanical, not narrated. No retroactive editing.

in motion now: W19, W20, W21 published. W22 generating. first verdicts land W27 of 2026. rolling forward from there.

recent chains landed

W19 · 2026-05-08 EU tripartite trade stack tests German Mittelstand lobbying, lands in a Brabant SME.

W20 · 2026-05-11 Trump-Xi summit ring-fences REE access. Brainport NdPr suppliers squeezed; CRMA Strategic Project relief lags.

W21 · 2026-05-18 Bilateral US-China rare-earth deal extends the pattern. Non-Chinese provenance becomes a 2026-2027 commercial opportunity.

05 · one chain, end to end

One profile. One diagnostic. One chain.

Anne runs Brabant Advanced Materials, a specialty chemicals SME in Eindhoven. We took her through profile ingest, a diagnostic, and the cascade that came out, including the regulation the diagnostic caught that she hadn't listed and the German lobbying fight that decides her outcome.

06 · the moat

Why this can't be copied.

The AI part is replicable. Anyone with an API key can build a version of this. The moat sits behind it: primary data sources, a public methodology track record, and a contribution flywheel that compounds with use.

  • 01 · data flywheel

    Contribution-based pricing. Users who feed signals back pay less. The platform compounds with use. Wikipedia meets prediction markets, for strategic intelligence.

  • 02 · methodology track record

    Every chain timestamped, every prediction publicly verifiable. The track record compounds. The longer we run, the harder we are to displace.

  • 03 · primary data, not headlines

    Regulatory filings, central bank releases, shipping data, commodity prices, satellite imagery. Reasoning from structured primary sources is the credibility gap. It separates Chainge from any wrapper around a chatbot.

07 · who is building this

Built by Niels Langereis.

Niels Langereis
niels langereis · baarn, nl

Eighteen years building platforms, integrating businesses, and shipping technology, across PE-backed groups and global agency networks. The longer Niels did it, the harder one observation got to ignore: most of what consultancies sell as proprietary analysis isn't. It's labor, on public information, priced for institutional buyers. Chainge automates the labor and prices it for everyone else.

Most recently, group-wide AI governance and platform strategy at Normec Group across 70+ entities. Before that: CEO at New Story, CEO at Hogarth (WPP) Netherlands, Managing Director at Wavemaker (WPP), and earlier senior roles at Publicis (Amsterdam, Dubai).

In 2004, the same year James Surowiecki popularized the idea in The Wisdom of Crowds, Scott Page and Lu Hong published a result that Page himself didn't initially believe: a randomly chosen, diverse group of problem-solvers consistently outperforms a homogeneous group of the best individual experts. He ran the simulations again before publishing.

A younger Niels had heard a version of this years before, told as a story about a research team in European banking that supposedly mixed economists and lawyers with historians, anthropologists, and political experts, all looking at the same question from a different side of the table. He was never able to verify it, but he also never stopped thinking about it. His master's thesis on creative mass collaboration argued the same point in a different domain. Chainge is that room, opened up.

The team is small.By design. Chainge's moat is the contribution flywheel, not employee headcount. Currently one founder, a working advisory circle, and the first design partner conversations underway.

08 · talk to us

research preview · no signup form yet. You reach Chainge through Niels, and the diagnostic and briefing land via direct conversation. The path will change once we open to subscribers; the thesis won't.

for partners & investors

If you back cross-domain intelligence platforms, we should talk.

Chainge is in research preview. We're building a small group of design partners, and a small backing syndicate around the thesis, the data infrastructure, and the contribution economy. Direct line to Niels.

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